Note 67: What if... Trump wins the presidency in two weeks?

I’m taking a bit of a physical and mental health day today. I woke up with a splitting headache and hot forehead, and I look forward to getting some extra rest in to nip whatever this might be in the bud. Given that I’m home-bound today, I figure that I’ll also do some house cleaning and chores that I’ve neglected for months, due to being pretty much in full sprint mode for most of the year.

In physical space, I made a decent dent on things yesterday, but saved my home office for last. If you were to be standing beside me, looking around me, you’d submit my name for an episode of Hoarders. I have a to-read pile that’s nearly as tall as I am, places coated in dust, and far too many boxes and mail to process and recycle.

I’m a firm believer that my physical environment heavily influences my mood, attitudes, and how I think, so a good part of today’s goal is taking care of that environment. That said, one thing that’s plaguing me now is the extreme uncertainty we are all under given the upcoming election. I’m not going to make any predictions about who is going to win – I suspect that Harris has better fundamentals, but Trump is also surging lately – but I can make some plans and set some expectations about how to approach the term of  our historical next President. Either we’ll either elect America’s first female or its first felon to the Oval Office.

So, without further ado…

Harris wins, now what?

My immediate plan is to pour a generous helping of the best spirit that I have in my bar and celebrate. In this instance, Donald Trump is denied another chaotic term in office (and dies of old age - ideally in jail - before he can threaten the Republic again), we probably don’t have to worry too much about Robert’s Folly, the rule of law keeps holding, and life can continue going on as it has been. There will be many things that I disagree with President Harris on, but they all fall within the realm of Normal Politics. We still have to solve the problem that FAR too many Americans are comfortable with authoritarian fascism, and I hope that the solution to that is showing them normal democratic politics can address their issues without the need for a strongman.

Trump wins, now what?

This is where things get hairy and interesting. For the past eight years, my primary political identity has been anti-Trumpism. (Accusing me of “Trump Derangement Syndrome” is a compliment and badge of honor to me.) In an era of Normal Politics, I revert to more of a libertarian-leaning Federalist – I largely prefer States and local gov’ts making the rules their residents live under – but in an era of Abnormal Politics, I’ve cheerfully cast my lot with those who differ from me politically, but still agree on basic principles such as the “Rule Of Law”, “We Are Not Ruled By A King”, “Our Armed Forces Are Loyal To The Constitution, And Not A Man” and the general social contract underlying a modern democratic government.

This week, Nick Catoggio (the conservative pundit formerly known as “Allahpundit”) posted a dark piece titled “Liberal Tears” (and is unfortunately paywalled) where he delves into the dark disillusionment that half of the country will be dealing with in two weeks’ time, should Trump be victorious:

The disillusionment will happen suddenly, not gradually. Millions of Americans who believed Trump was competitive earlier this year only because of Joe Biden’s infirmity will discover that replacing the president with a much younger Democrat as nominee didn’t solve the problem. Trump didn’t win because he was marginally less unfit for office than a senescent 81-year-old; he won because the country wanted him back.

And the disillusionment this time will be due to the American people themselves, not to the policies of a corrupt administration that can be replaced in four years’ time. That’s what Halperin means when he imagines Harris voters questioning “their connection to the nation, their connection to other human beings, their connection to their vision of what their future for them and their children could be like.” The electorate will have been offered a choice between an underwhelming but thoroughly mainstream Democrat and “the most openly fascist campaign ever undertaken by a major-party nominee for president”—and chosen the latter.

At the risk of shocking Tucker again, let me suggest that there’s no coming back from that. A Trump victory will be akin to the moment in an unhappy marriage where the spouses are arguing again and one hauls off and hits the other. It might not mean that the marriage is over—but it’ll never be the same. Both partners will have learned something hard about what one is capable of and that will inform their future interactions forever.

This isn’t 2016. Trump is no longer an unknown quantity about whom the average voter might be reasonably optimistic. Harris isn’t a dynastic establishment dinosaur whom everyone and their mother dislikes. One can point to Democratic policy failures like inflation and immigration to rationalize why the election will be closer than it rightly should be, but there’s no way to rationalize an outright Trump victory except as a reflection of the American character.

And if you’re an American and you suddenly don’t recognize yourself in that reflection—you’re going to experience the most profound identity crisis of your life.

In the days after the 2016 general election, I recall the primary sentiment I felt wasn’t one of sadness or anger (those would come later), but being emotionally unmoored and untethered. (The technical term is dissociation.) It was a couple of days living in an intense feeling of detachment, of the sort you read about when folks experience discover the foundational truths that they took for granted were false, and have to begin renegotiating their existence in the world without those basic assumptions that were largely invisible. In the years after 2016, I learned more WHY the American electorate made the choice they did (this is where the anger and sadness started to assert themselves), and was spared another existential reckoning in 2020 when things functioned as they did and we got another Normal person as president in Joseph Biden.

I strongly anticipate that another 2016-style reckoning is just over the horizon, and as Catoggio points out, in this case we are no longer working with “known unknowns”, but “known knowns” - all the way down. Should Trump prove successful in his electoral campaign this year, there’s no getting around the fact that “America” no longer can count on having a critical mass of adults sharing the same classical liberal values and principles that have allowed this country to endure for almost a quarter of a millennium. Caesar will have crossed the Rubicon, and the brief era of American Exceptionalism will be definitively over. The country may rediscover the classical liberal principles that made it great again, but those won’t be able to be taken for granted, as has been the case for most of my lifetime.

So, with that all out of the way, what plans am I considering for a second Trump era? Here are a few:

1. Doubling down on my commitment to Federalism. One of the biggest failures of the Biden administration was the failure to recognize and reinforce the Constitutional limits that are placed on Washington and the vast powers that States have to run themselves. Aside from the clown car of the fools that currently are running Chicago, I have been quite happy with how the State is run and feel like we have a solid leader in J.B. Pritzker in Springfield. To whatever extent I can support developments that lead to Pritzker calling the shots in my day-to-day life, I’m on board with that.
2. Encouraging capable folks in red states to emigrate to blue states. Continue to advocate for policies that concentrate economic power in areas that I agree with, and bleed that power from areas that I disagree with. Assist friends and family in relocating if so desired. If #MAGA dipshits want to run a State, let the State run entirely with #MAGA dipshits and let them reap the rewards.
3. Abandon my current Republican affiliation to resume being an independent. I registered as a Republican back in 2000 to support John McCain’s campaign in the primary against George W. Bush. I renewed my affiliation in 2008 to support McCain in that later primary. I supported Romney over the other yahoos in 2012, and since 2016 have been using my affiliation to vote within the party against Trump and his enablers since then. The failure of the Nikki Haley campaign this cycle revealed to me that there’s simply no more appetite within the national Republican party for responsible and accountable governance, and that there’s no salvaging the GOP. I did my part, it failed, and a second Trump term will be the signal I need to finally jump out of the flaming bus and just let it go over the cliff.¡Vaya con Dios, pendejos!
4. Aside from supporting and voting for candidates that make Trump and #MAGA’s life hell, I’m planning on largely ignoring national politics and focusing on what I can do to make life better in my neighborhood, city, and state. A second Trump term will be an absolute shitshow, and it’s not clear to what extent my engaging with any of that does anything other than distract and annoy me. If I’m going to be engaging and annoyed at something, I might as well be doing that locally as opposed to federally.
5. Mourn the death of the Ukrainian nation and its culture. A Trump ascendancy is a death sentence for that nation and people that I’ve been supporting since they were unjustly invaded in 2022. I don’t think we’ve seen a nation die in the same way that Russia will murder Ukraine when a President Trump pulls American support. I shudder simply anticipating the atrocities we will reading and hearing about in the years ahead.
6. Investigate looking into a new line of work. I’ve been public and loud about my opposition to Trump since 2015, and my business largely relies on money flowing from federal grants for scientific research. If Trump is elected, I fully expect those funding streams to be eliminated or grossly disrupted (esp. with “Hardcore Elon” leading the charge), and it’s now entirely within the realm of possibility that commentary like this puts me on one blacklist or other. I could make the transition to a commercial outfit, but the current state of the IT industry isn’t one that I’m currently fond of. (Another reason I’ve been happy being an independent solo contractor.) A new Trump administration might be a good time to me to get back to a job with a physical component where I’m working on tangible things instead of playing AI word salad games.
7. Investigate emigrating somewhere else. I have a valuable skill set that I’ve sold to folks in other countries, so maybe it’s time to pick another place to do that elsewhere in the Anglosphere. My biggest single stock holding is for a company with operations in New Zealand. My holiday traditions are probably more British in nature than not these days. I find Toronto to be more of the kind of city like Chicago that I like than anywhere else in the United States. As a fan of Brandeis’s “laboratories of democracy”, perhaps it’s time to extend that idea from States as the units being described to Nations?

These are a few of the bigger things that have been swirling around my head in this maelstrom of uncertainty. I’m fortunate to be in a position where I can contemplate engaging in a new line of work or moving to another country. I’m fortunate that I live in a (mostly) decently-governed City and State, and would likely be one of the last to suffer the bad outcomes of another Trump presidency.

For the folks who are not as fortunate as I am – families with trans kids, any minority that might excite Stephen Miller to “denaturalize”, sexual minorities, etc. – you’ll be in for some dark days. I’d advise making having some plans to relocate to a more compatible State, if America decides to put fascists (a word that I don’t use lightly) in charge. If you don’t have that luxury, I strongly advise preparing to protect yourself – and that includes purchasing and training yourself to use firearms in the defense of yourself and property. (The Second Amendment isn’t going anywhere – you might as well put it to use.) What we know about Trump and his ilk is that they make a lot of noise, but are basic bullies at the end of the day. Don’t be afraid to demonstrate (within reason) that you are not a soft target, and they are better off talking shit and playing brave keyboard warriors than taking on a target that fights back. Do not assume that anyone else is primarily responsible for your own safety and well-being.

I hope that this Note goes down in the archives as a bad issue of Marvel’s “What If…?” and I sheepishly look it in two weeks as something that I was getting overly agitated over. However, it never hurts to prepare and look foolish for anticipating the worst eventuality (and it not happening), than becoming the latest victim of history who thought things were going to be okay, only to find out that the Bad Guys are all too real.